Fickle Fed Focused on Jobs

It seems like just yesterday the Fed was all about inflation.

So why are Jerome Powell & Crew now talking about jobs?

A look inside ADP’s November report shows why they are looking past inflation (for the moment) and focusing on the sluggish job market.

As you can see, job creation at small firms has come to a halt. Firms with fewer than 50 employees lost 120,000 jobs during the first two weeks of November. Mid-sized and large companies picked up some of the slack, but, in total, the private sector lost 32,000 jobs for the month, according to the ADP.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is still playing catch-up due to the shutdown, will release its November jobs report on Tuesday, December 16. In the next few days, you might start seeing some economists take a shot at making a forecast.

If the Fed cuts short-term interest rates in December (and continues to cut in 2026), will that solve small businesses' job problem overnight? No, but it might be a step in the right direction.

Small businesses accounted for 55 percent of the total jobs created between 2013 and 2023, making them a significant part of the economic engine.

The Fed has what’s called a dual mandate: stable prices and maximum employment. And right now, employment is heavier than inflation on the Fed’s balancing scale.

Remember, “this too shall pass,” and something else will come into Wall Street’s crosshairs. Your best approach is to focus on your financial strategy and tune out the chatter on social media and business news.

^{CNBC.com, December 3, 2025. “November private payrolls unexpectedly fell by 32,000, led by steep small business job cuts, ADP reports.”}

^{BLS.gov, May 1, 2024. “Small businesses contributed 55 percent of the total net job creation from 2013 to 2023.”}